Wii report card: The first six months.
It has now been six months since the US release of the Nintendo Wii. On November 19th, 2006, Nintendo released the console that nearly everyone expected to be pretty unsuccessful because of a combination of Nintendo’s recent console performance and, well, because let’s face it, the Wii is pretty weird.
It seems we were all wrong. And as the Wii continues to sell 100% of its available supply (as it has done since launch) it rapidly closes on the installed base of the Xbox 360, which had a year head start. This is with no online play, no hard drive, no HD, no playback from DVDs or even CDs, no Halo, and no Metal Gear Solid. How?
Hardware.
The Wii is far less capable in terms of sheer horsepower than an Xbox 360 or a PS3. In fact, the range it’s in puts it so much closer to an Xbox than an Xbox 360 that it could be considered a last-generation machine if you’re going to push it just a little. But processor speed and polygons are only one part of the equation. The machine is very small, very quiet, it runs very cool, and on very little energy. It’s surprisingly efficient for a video game console.
And then there’s the controller, which is a remarkable mix of old technologies that usually works very well. I want to predict that IR functionality will fade away, at least in the software, because of its problems. In ideal situations, it’s fantastic, but too often (as in, when there’s direct sunlight behind your display) it’s useless for something as exact as navigating a menu or pointing at an enemy. Already we’re seeing motion-based pointing, something I wondered about early on. If it weren’t for IR navigation of the Wii Menu, I think we’d see it even faster.
Finally, there’s the firmware. It’s pretty clear that the work on the Wii’s firmware was pretty last-minute stuff, as it’s more spartan than simple. Bizarre limitations in the firmware, such as the imaginary barrier the system creates between the Wii and Gamecube game saves are just baffling. Hopefully the next six months will see some dramatic improvements in these areas.
The Wii’s “first six months” hardware grade: B-
Software.
There has been a surprising array of software for the Wii, but it would take a real fanboy to say it’s been great software. Some of the titles are great, and they fall into pretty sharp categories.
The Core Gamer: Nintendo’s term “core gamer” refers to the exclusive fans of traditional style games. These are the existing franchise people, who aren’t really interested in new types of games exactly, but would like to see how they can make better jumps in Mario, better use of the tools in Zelda, and better kills in Metroid using the new type of controller. These people want the kinds of games they’re used to, with better controls. So far, they’ve been given The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess and Super Paper Mario. Other attempts have been made, mostly by Ubisoft, but most haven’t turned out well.
The Non-Gamer: Acceptance of the term “non-gamer” is tough for me. As far as I’m concerned, if someone picks up a controller, plays a game, then puts it down and picks it up again on a regular basis, they’re a gamer. What Nintendo means by non-gamer is a gamer who plays non-games. Warioware: Smooth Moves, Trauma Center: Second Opinion, and Wii Sports fit into this category. Casual games that really couldn’t be the same game without the unusual control scheme. Nintendo talked about “blue ocean” strategy and expanding the market for themselves, and they’ve done better at this than anything else. Wii Sports, along with the Wii Remote, is probably the single biggest factor in the Wii’s success so far.
The Retro Gamer: Here’s the category Nintendo has fully sewn up so far. Discs like Metal Slug Anthology and downloads on the Virtual Console are the perfect thing to draw the retro gamer. The Virtual Console has been an incredible success, pulling in well over three million units sold since launch worldwide. These are games that sell in the range of $5 to $10, and some of them are more than 20 years old. All Nintendo has to do to keep this market is keep spilling the old games out onto the Virtual Console, just a few a week, and they’re golden.
The Wii’s “first six months” software grade: C+
Direction.
Does the Wii have a future? Well, that depends. The system can’t ride on Zelda and Wii Sports forever. Another killer app for the new market will have to appear, even if it’s just Wii Sports 2. Upcoming titles like Super Mario Galaxy and Metroid Prime 3: Corruption, along with third party games like No More Heroes and even perhaps Manhunt 2 should satisfy the core gamer. But I don’t see any games with the kind of appeal Wii Sports has on the horizon yet, at least since Wii Play. We’ve heard rumblings of Wii Health and Wii Music, but it remains to be seen if those will have the kind of mass appeal we’ve seen Wii Sports enjoy.
In the end, it will come down to third party support. If the developers can’t “figure out” how to make the most of what the Wii can do, the ship will sink. Some companies, like Ubisoft, Konami and EA (surprisingly) seem to be starting to really get how to make games for the system that sell big numbers. But if the trend falls, the WIi goes with it. It will be interesting to see what the next six months hold for the system in terms of third party support.
The Wii’s “first six months” direction grade: B
Supply and Demand.
There is no doubt that the Nintendo Wii is the king of demand right now. In every region, it is leading the competition by a large margin and sells every unit that Nintendo manages to ship. On the contrary, in the supply area Nintendo has been an utter failure. It’s not clear exactly why Nintendo still cannot meet demand on a system that’s half a year old, but we can make some assumptions based on the past. Nintendo has always addressed their system demand in a very cautious fashion. By assuming moderate sales, they’ve been able to target demand very closely and keep their costs very low. With the astonishing demand they’ve seen for the Wii and DS, they’ve suddenly found themselves without the infrastructure to build the systems they need to sell. Lack of ability to scale your supply chain is a huge no-no, especially for a company this size. Contrary to popular belief, this does not help Wii sales, it helps Xbox 360 sales.
How to score this? Demand’s a huge success… supply, a stunning failure.
The Wii’s “first six months” supply and demand grade: C-
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Those are some pretty low grades for a console that is outselling the PS2 in a “first 6 months comparison”. I’m not disagreeing with them, but I would add another grading criteria along the line of “fun factor” or “Hype” or something that would help explain it’s success thus far. I mean it seems odd that a console with a “B” for “Direction” as it’s best grade would be selling so well. Maybe there could be a “Marketing” category or something. Otherwise, the sales don’t make much sense.
Business:
Nintendo as a very old company runs their business exceptionally well. That means no wasted manufacturing capability and making money on every bit of hardware sold. If we were to rate their business unit, I’d give them an A (or A+ if we’re going by high school grades).
I’d split Hardware into Hardware and Firmware. We know from the 360 that the hardware can be flimsy and fragile compared to the firmware. I’d still give them both your grade of B-. C+ is a bit too harsh for firmware designed to be easy to use. That means simple.
Software I’d hit lower, in the C- category. I’d go to D territory if the Virtual Console wasn’t a huge pipeline of titles from both Nintendo and non-Nintendo systems. That right there is very impressive for a company normally very insular and protective.
As for Direction, I think the hype machine is still burning bright for the Wii because sales are so good. The assumption is that with weaker hardware and innovative control options available, developers will flock to it. But without proof of execution I couldn’t give it a grade that high. The GameCube was supposedly cheap to make games for and it flopped.
The 360 would be the biggest threat if the systems were reliable.